Analysis of the NHL trade deadline board: Numbers behind the names

The Athletic updated the Board of Trade one last time on Monday ahead of what is still likely to be a very busy week. Most of the big names are already off the board (and six more got off after one very busy Tuesday), but there are still some difference makers available.

I’ve already written about the biggest names, under-the-radar targets and red flags to avoid — but it’s still important to touch on all the names available in some way.

My colleagues Eric Duhatschek, Pierre LeBrun, and Michael Russo have already provided some expert analysis in the original Board of Trade that you should definitely catch up on. This is meant to be an accessory to that: a one-stop shop for player cards plus an analytically inclined, bite-sized note for every player available.

Before we get to that, here are two large, sortable tables that show each player’s value this season and their projected value going forward.

Read more: Biggest names

The biggest difference maker on the board and a true No. 1 defenseman. Chychrun has a massive shot that he’s not afraid to use, but his main selling point is his ability to move the puck and drive plays at both ends of the ice in tough minutes. He is the complete package and worth the high cost of acquisition.

James van Riemsdyk is not a perfect player, but he gets results. He can put up 20 goals and 40 points while being a responsible player at five-on-five. This year, he leads all Flyers with an expected goal rate of 52 percent and is near the top with 53 percent of the goals. The Flyers are a much better team with van Riemsdyk on the ice, and while he has a reputation for poor defense, his impacts there are routinely positive. His salary isn’t ideal, but with double retention he could be an incredibly useful complementary scorer in a middle six.

Nick Schmaltz is a surprising name on the trade board, given his value. He is a two-win player; a bona fide top six forward who can score at a near-point-per-game pace and drive the game. For three straight seasons, he has had an extremely strong impact on expected and actual goals and is excellent at generating high-danger chances. Schmaltz will be a great addition for teams looking to attack more off the rush – that’s where he thrives and his 75 percent carry rate is one of the league’s best. Three more years at a reasonable price makes him an extremely attractive commodity.

Read more: Players to avoid

I don’t think I’ve ever seen such a low defensive effect. Maybe John Klingberg can help as a third-pair puck mover, but expecting more in a top four role is difficult. Klingberg has allowed a controlled entry on 71 percent of his goals, one of the worst marks in the league.

Read more: Players to avoid

Unless Domi can be truly isolated on a sheltered scoring line, he feels like a poor spot for any serious contender. His reluctance to defend is antithetical to playoff-style hockey, and his offensive efficiency isn’t strong enough to warrant top-six status. A recent hot streak of 13 points in the last six games offers room for a break on the latter front – but Domi’s 49 points in 59 games doesn’t tell the whole story.

Once one of the prized assets of the Canucks core, Brock Boeser has been in decline for three straight seasons, going from a safe first line to an average third line. Boeser can still produce in the right setting, but his famous shot hasn’t gotten him many five-on-five goals lately, and he’s become a serious liability defensively. The Canucks – a very poor defensive team – see their expected goals increase by half a goal with Boeser on the ice. Also worth noting: Boeser is a complete passer in transition with an incredibly low 36 percent controlled entry rate. The league average is closer to 51 percent, and he ranks second last on the Canucks.

Read more: Under the radar

A nice buy for what probably won’t be a very high price. Nick Bjugstad has had strong defensive features for four years in a row and has more than held his own this year in a very large role. Would be an excellent fourth line addition, especially for teams looking for size in the middle.

Adam Henrique is currently injured, which puts a damper on things, but he has been a consistent second-line scorer for much of his career. He is versatile, playing center and wing, and has a strong ability to create chances and finish them. Teams looking for goals could do a lot worse, though he needs to be lined up with someone who can feed him the puck. Henrique has one of the league’s lowest zone entry rates and is a below-average passer and forechecker.

Read more: Under the radar

Still hard to believe Carson Soucy would be traded considering Seattle’s playoff spot, but he’s an attractive winner with his ability to suppress goals. Even if his game doesn’t translate to a top-four role, he’s a big, mean defender who has proven he can win warm-up minutes. Soucy is one of the league’s best defenders.

Kudos to the Flyers if they can cash in on Kevin Hayes’ return to production by shedding his contract. Hayes is playing at a 66-point pace, but that has a lot to do with a regular shift on the top power play (60 percent of his minutes) where he scores on 25 percent of his shots (career average is half that). He’s still a productive second-line scorer, but that’s hardly worth $7.14 million for three more seasons given how bad he is defensively. The Flyers have been outscored at five-on-five with Hayes on the ice in every single season he has been with the team.

Teams could do a lot worse than Lars Eller if they’re looking for a pure defensive specialist in the bottom six. His impact in that role remains strong enough for him to be an asset there — just don’t expect much from any offense. Otherwise, his 1.03 points per 60 at five-on-five this year is a career low, and while he could return to his former form, his age suggests that’s unlikely.

We’ve learned two things over the past two seasons with Shayne Gostisbehere: He can still score, and please keep him out of the top pairing. Gostisbehere didn’t come to Arizona with a stellar defensive reputation, and for good reason given what he’s done since as one of their top options. He has soaked up chances and goals against, showing why the Flyers were hesitant to use him in heavy minutes near the end of his tenure there. Cover him and he can be a useful puck mover who can quarterback a power play. Expect more and teams are likely to be disappointed.

There was a time when Conor Sheary was an unstoppable stud next to Sidney Crosby. Since then, he’s rounded out into a serviceable middle-six guy; a plug-and-play type with some offensive flash who is good at getting pucks up ice. He is small but could be useful as a third line scorer.

It’s been a long time since Matt Dumba was an offensive goal-scoring dynamo. Lately, he’s been a key cog on Minnesota’s notorious shutdown pairing with Jonas Brodin and is excellent at limiting zone entries, but in the last two years, Dumba’s offensive output has really dried up. He has fallen out of favor for good reason given his contract, and could definitely use a change of scenery. Dumba is still a top four defender, but not a very strong one.

Read more: Players to avoid

Injuries have turned Joel Edmundson into a shadow of the player he once was. He was a beast during the 2021 playoffs, but it’s hard to love anything he’s done since. In a vacuum, he’s a decent flier as a reclamation project given his past – it just doesn’t feel like that’s actually how he’ll be valued in the market.

He’s a surprising name on the list, but Dante Fabbro has clearly fallen out of favor this season and has seen his ice time plummet from the last two seasons. Fabbro’s numbers in recent years must be taken with a grain of salt given his shielded usage, but they still point to a solid defender with varying degrees of offensive efficiency. Some years he is great, some average, some terrible. Who knows in that regard, but at least his defensive value has remained consistent. That’s worth something, even if he just ends up being a third-pair guy instead of the top-four option many once expected him to be.

A perfectly cromulent netminder, one who is performing exactly as expected this season. Cam Talbot has bounced back nicely from a trying 2021-22 season, though any potential team trading for him should do so with a backup role in mind. He’s not a starter anymore.

Read more: Players to avoid

Dmitry Kulikov was a useful defender already last year, but there have been no signs of that this season. Last year’s effort makes him attractive in the right role, but it feels like an outlier in a long career as a negative value player. His usage with the Ducks was obviously far too extreme, and maybe he’d be OK as a protected third-pairing option — it’s probably not worth the risk.

In 43 games this year, Jordan Greenway has just two goals and six points. Yep. Considering his defensive influence remains strong, he still creates chances, has an individual scoring percentage of 29 percent and has a shooting percentage on the ice three points in his last two seasons. He feels like a decent low-stakes buy. At worst, he is a good defensive fourth line. At best, he’s a useful mid-six contributor.

Data via Evolving Hockey

(Photo by Jakob Chychrun: Brace Hemmelgarn / USA Today)